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US Economic Risks (Sept 2010): Impact on Investors & Entrepreneurs

Both Sides of the Table

One year ago I predicted that in 2010/11 the economy, far from being on the path of permanent recovery was on a temporary resurgence and there was a strong possibility of a “double dip” recession. So I agreed to offer my current thinking on the economy and what it portends for the VC industry & fund raising for entrepreneurs.

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2010 VC Funding Outlook for Startups – Prepare for Winter (Part 3/3)

Both Sides of the Table

I obviously don’t have a crystal ball so the economy could fare better than my gut, but here’s why I’m cautious for some time in 2010 or early 2011: Why is the future still so unpredictable? If these factors impact earnings the stock market may be headed South – If unemployment rises housing prices won’t.

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Stock Market Drops. Then It Rallies. What Happens Next for Funding?

Both Sides of the Table

My partnership was pretty bearish and scratched our heads a bit at price tags. The following is a 2-week graph of the end-of-week price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in Autumn 2008. Let’s review all of our existing investments. And VCs scrambled to raise their own funds. Fundings boomed.

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Why Has Seed Investing Declined? And What Does this Mean for the Future?

Both Sides of the Table

Seed investments are down by any measure (funds, deals, dollars) over the past 3 years in deals < $1 million AND in deals between $1–5 million. The reality is that as a result of two major trends the costs of starting a technology startup went down massively. So What Impact Did the Drop in Tech Founding Costs Have on VC?

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Good Times Ahead for VC-backed Tech Companies?

Both Sides of the Table

On the third Wednesday of every month I co-chair a meeting called the SoCal VCA (venture capital alliance), which represents participants from all of the top venture capital firms in Southern California as well as prominent members of the Tech Coast Angels (TCA). Nearly 50% say they will increase their activity levels in 2010 (hallelujah!)

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The Changing Structure of the VC Industry

Both Sides of the Table

The rise of “micro VCs” or seed-stage funds. The rise of alternative sources of capital (crowd funding and the like). Lower costs to start a business (95% reduction), many more companies created & funded by angels / seed. ” Stated simply – if you seed funded Uber at $4.5m Why is this?

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What Angel Investing & Florida Condos Have in Common

Both Sides of the Table

I pointed to several Economist articles I had read that mapped historical prices of real estate for 400 years and how on average property values grow at no more 1.5% above inflation yet in many markets in the US & Europe prices were rising at 10-25% per year. And it’s driving up prices beyond their inherent value.

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